Schroders Capital Investment Outlook: Real Estate H1 2024

We explore the fundamentals underpinning our expectations and views, our conviction themes, the investment strategies benefitting from them, and how we are seeking to position portfolios for outperformance.

2024년4월17일
Institutional Investor Study 2023
Read full reportSchroders Capital Investment Outlook: Real Estate H1 2024
33 페이지

Authors

Kieran Farrelly
Head of Global Solutions, Real Estate

In this Outlook we explore the fundamentals underpinning our expectations and views, our conviction themes, the investment strategies benefitting from them, and how we are seeking to position portfolios for outperformance.

Our Investment Outlook for Real Estate highlights the following:

  • Real estate market value corrections have continued in earnest, although the pace and depth of adjustments have been uneven across geographies, sectors, and investment structures. Investors have had to contend with higher interest rate levels, muted economic conditions and heightened geopolitical tensions in recent months but now have the prospect of sequential opportunities to access attractively repriced opportunities in various (sub)sectors and geographies.

  • Many major economies have made great strides in reducing inflation, with a significantly lower impact on growth than markets had previously expected. Rising geopolitical tensions and a more extended period of elevated interest rate volatility may be weighing on markets, but despite these uncertainties we feel it's time to strike an optimistic note.

  • While downside risks remain, the long-term trends of the ‘3Ds’ (demographics, deglobalisation, decarbonisation) as well as digitalisation are providing tailwinds to certain sectors and the overall outlook is starting to improve as inflation eases and interest rates peak.

  • Occupational markets remain on a solid footing, with nominal growth expected across most segments, especially those supportedbystructural tailwinds. Whilst demand has softened, tight supply conditions (due to higher construction and debt finance costs) continue to support sustainable rental income levels, and the scarcity of high-quality ESG-compliant space will fuel renewed rental growth once economic growth in various geographies rebounds.

  • We believe that 2024 will mark the start of a cyclical buying opportunity due to the extent and uneven pattern of the repricing experienced to date. Investors should remain patient but position themselves to capitalise on opportunities as they emerge on a sequential basis across major markets and sectors.

  • Our proprietary market valuation frameworkindicates immediate opportunities can be found in markets that have experienced the fastest repricing, such as the UK and Nordicregion, followed by the US and other Continental European markets. In the Asia Pacific region, cyclical opportunities are focused on markets that align with China's delayed recovery and/or offer alternatives in the nearshoring/friendshoringof supply chains. Industrial and logistics assets have now largely rebased to attractive price points in most submarkets, which are supported by strong structural fundamentals -with prospective returns in Europe particularly compelling given limited supply.

  • The average real estate portfolio composition is evolving, and the ability to create the ‘core of the future’ across a range of segments ‘adjacent’ to the traditional staples of office, industrial retail and multifamily, is offering a range of early mover opportunities, especially in more operationally intenseasset classes.

  • Key sustainability and impact considerations should be prioritised which means capital expenditure will have to increase to meet evolving regulatory and shifting tenant requirements, with increasing benefits to boost returns from rent premiums given scarcity of compliant assets.
Read full reportSchroders Capital Investment Outlook: Real Estate H1 2024
33 페이지

Authors

Kieran Farrelly
Head of Global Solutions, Real Estate

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