2024 시장 전망: 부동산(영문)

In our Schroders Capital Investment Outlook webinar series, our experts guide you through investing across all asset classes of private markets. Hear our Real Assets Debt experts' insights.


The long-term trends of the “3D Reset” - changing demographics, decarbonisation, and rapid deglobalisation - are all pro-inflationary. They have already had profound influence in the form of higher inflation, higher interest rates and by extension, more expensive financing.

It has created a fantastic environment for debt investors, creating a broad opportunity set for coupon hunters that will continue to develop as the cycle evolves.

The commercial real estate sector, for example, has been the source of some unsettling headlines this year, but there are inefficiencies on which investors can capitalise.

There are two factors driving stress in commercial real estate.

Leverage is one, as financing rates have basically doubled over the last two years, and there is a capital squeeze. Banks and the commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) market typically provide about two-thirds of financing for commercial real estate. What we are seeing today is unprecedented, because both lenders are pulling back at the same time.

The second issue – and principally relevant for the office sector – is a structural reduction in demand combined with record amounts of supply coming online.

Debt investors can take advantage of this situation. In both the US and European markets there is an opportunity to step into the capital gap where traditional lenders are pulling back. For alternative lenders that understand the sector-specific risks, bridging this funding gap cap be very rewarding.

Opportunities in the infrastructure market are different. The dynamic of the funding gap is not there, as demand for private capital in infrastructure debt has been kept steady by megatrends such as the energy transition and digitisation; huge themes that require a lot of investment.

Over the last decade the asset class has also fared very well due to the natural hedge against inflation and typically conservative interest rate hedging. Spreads have remained stable for years, while underlying rates and therefore total return, have increased. We believe risk adjusted returns today are as strong as they’ve ever been.

The dynamics in emerging market infrastructure debt, however, are different again. There is a significant funding shortfall in achieving the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with the gap largely attributable to providing infrastructure. And because of the lack of investment that should have happened over the last few years, the opportunity has just grown. We are talking about multiple trillions of dollars required. As in developed markets, emerging markets can provide stable yield, with a hedge against inflation, but with the added benefit of strong potential for positive impact.

Despite the differences outlined above, we believe these are all scalable opportunities, actionable today, that offer diversification, low volatility, and multi-decade, high levels of income.


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